SIRA Views

October 9, 2015  /  4:06 AM
An Australian Recession?

Recession1Will Australia enter a recession soon?

The answer in part depends on how you define a recession. The traditional (U.S.) definition has been two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Real GDP is the volume of output in the economy, in other words, the level of goods and service produced after inflation is removed. For example, if inflation is 5% and nominal (unadjusted) GDP rises by 2%, real GDP has actually fallen—by 3%.

September 4, 2015  /  6:41 AM
Long Term vs Short Term

When the share market is volatile in the short term, many people forget the long-term benefits of share investment. The chart below shows the All Ordinaries Index from January 1990 to now, plotted on a log scale. A logarithmic scale is designed to make similar percentage moves in the market occupy the same “space” on the chart

August 21, 2015  /  5:51 AM
The Market Correction

Bear & Bull MarketOver the last few months, the Australian share market, as measured by the All Ordinaries index is down 12%, so we are now officially in a correction.

August 14, 2015  /  6:20 AM
When Will the US Raise Interest Rates?

interest-rate-riseSince the end of 2008, the average fed funds rate has been just 0.13%. This extraordinarily low bank rate has been necessary to undo the damages caused by the GFC. But, obviously, it was never meant to be permanent. And as the US economy has recovered, so have we moved closer to the point where interest rates will have to rise.

August 7, 2015  /  6:00 AM
Unemployment Jumps! Or Does It?

AU UnemploymentAmong the most closely watched economic statistics in Australia are the employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (the ABS): the unemployment rate, the level of total employment, and the split between full-time and part-time employment

August 6, 2015  /  6:01 AM
US Share Market

US SharesThe US economic upswing is the most advanced among the largest world economies. Since the deep collapse during the GFC, the economy has (more or less) steadily advanced. Over the last 7 years, the US cash rate, called the fed funds rate, has been just above zero.

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