Every week, new information about the state of the economy is released. It’s easy to be misled by the noise, and to miss the signal, because time series fluctuate around their underlying trend, and because different time series give different signals in the short term. This is especially the case when the media and the markets fixate upon yesterday’s statistic, not the trend—down half a per cent last month after being up 2% the month before is a different picture from being down half a per cent last month after a fall in the previous month too.
Australia has been prone to booms and busts since it was founded, partly because it’s a commodity economy, and commodity prices are much more volatile than prices for industrial products; and partly because we tend to go overboard on property during the boom times and amass too much debt to buy the property, which becomes a drag on growth after the boom ends.
Many commentators have been predicting, for several years now, that US inflation is set to explode because of the massive monetary stimulus the US Federal Reserve Bank has undertaken since the GFC. In fact, inflation has averaged about a percentage point lower since the GFC than in the decade before it. But recently there have been some tentative signs that inflation is starting to drift up.
Consumer and business confidence are insubstantial things, at first glance. You can’t see them or touch them. Yet they are vital to the performance of the economy. If consumer confidence is weak, consumer spending will be sluggish and investment in housing will struggle. 
The ATO have been putting together a series of videos for SMSF trustees. We think this initiative is fantastic and the videos are a simple, easy to follow overview of the issues facing a trustee.
Presentation to Authorised Representatives of SIRA Group on the 8th May 2014 by Chief Investment Officer Nigel Purchase:
