Presentation to Authorised Representatives of SIRA Group on the 9th June 2016 by Chief Investment Officer, Nigel Purchase:
Due to popular demand, SIRA Group has relaunched its original newsletter SIRAViews. Issue 1 is available now.
Presentation to Authorised Representatives of SIRA Group on the 17th March 2016 by Chief Investment Officer, Nigel Purchase:
As you will all be aware, the share market has been declining for some weeks. At the moment, the outlook remains clouded, but we are concerned that this decline may have further to go in the short term, especially in overseas share markets. In our judgement, it is better to be cashed up in these conditions, just as we were during the GFC.
Most of our forecasts made this time last year have proved right, except one. As predicted, the A$ has fallen further, commodity prices and resource stocks have continued to decline, US interest rates have started rising, and world growth has continued. However, we also forecast a “moderate” rise in the share market. Instead the All Ordinaries index has fallen about 5% over the year.
The US Federal Reserve Bank (the “Fed” – the US equivalent of the Reserve Bank of Australia) has raised interest rates by 0.25%. This is the first rise in US rates since 2006.
So why has the Fed raised interest rates and what does that mean for investment markets?
The US fed funds rate (their version of Australia’s cash rate) has been close to zero since the GFC,
